Demand — actual & forecast
issued 3 Oct, 02:00 IST
Global modelPeak 14.3 GW · 15:00 IST
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Forecast
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Madhya Pradesh · generation mix · back to 2020
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State at a glance
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Subsidies & Incentives
3 active schemes applicable to Madhya Pradesh
Editorial seed catalogue covering central schemes (PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana, PM-KUSUM) plus state-specific schemes (DBT for agriculture, domestic free-units, OA banking). Rows with is_modeled=true are reasonable estimates pending direct verification of the primary GR / regulator order.
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News has moved to the News page
Every story tagged Madhya Pradesh, with its sources and the figures it reports, lives on one page you can filter and search.
Read Madhya Pradesh newsMadhya Pradesh is drawing 9,666 MW as of 2026-10-02T21:00:00+00:00 IST, sourced from the India Energy Atlas state-page-live snapshot.
Renewables (solar, wind, hydro, biomass) account for 10.6% of in-state generation in Madhya Pradesh as of 2026-10-02T21:00:00+00:00 IST. Nuclear and imports are excluded.
Madhya Pradesh's current grid carbon intensity is 852 gCO2/kWh as of 2026-10-02T21:00:00+00:00 IST, computed from the metered fuel mix using CEA v18 lifecycle emission factors.
Today's peak demand so far in Madhya Pradesh occurred at 00:30 IST. The value remains provisional until the current IST day ends.
Distribution in Madhya Pradesh is handled by one or more state-licensed DISCOMs; see the DISCOM card on the state page for the live roster.
The day-ahead demand forecast for Madhya Pradesh runs at single-digit MAPE; we publish the rolling 30-day MAPE on the State MAPE History card so readers can audit it themselves. Live demand comes from the SLDC scrape when available; non-SLDC states use the Atlas DISCOM disaggregation pipeline (Tier-A/B/C provenance, P10/P50/P90 bands).
Madhya Pradesh is drawing 9,666 MW of electricity at the current hour (2026-10-03T03:00:00+05:30 IST), per the India Energy Atlas state-page-live snapshot.
The latest modeled in-state generation mix for Madhya Pradesh is dominated by Coal at 89.4%. Grid carbon intensity is 852 gCO2/kWh.
Hourly disaggregation for Madhya Pradesh is awaiting the cross-project Atlas DISCOM Disaggregation tier-A endpoint; once it lands the live page will surface P10/P50/P90 bands without any FE change.
The day-ahead hourly demand forecast for Madhya Pradesh publishes a ±1.5σ band over the next 24 hours — per-state model v21 (holdout MAPE 4.6%); level-calibrated x1.27 vs canonical trailing 24h.
Composed at 2026-10-03T03:00:00+05:30
Load shape
SOURCE: SLDC + modeled demand · UPDATED 04:30 IST
Load distribution
SOURCE: SLDC + modeled demand · UPDATED 04:30 IST
Weather sensitivity
Slope
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R²
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Confidence
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Demand's sensitivity to temperature (MW per degree) is what turns a heatwave forecast into a load forecast. A high, tight slope means cooling load dominates and peaks are weather-driven and forecastable; a weak or noisy slope means the swing factor is something else — industrial shifts, agriculture, or a data gap worth questioning.
We do not show a modeled-vs-actual chart for Madhya Pradesh because no audited live SLDC interval served-load actual; the available source is modeled, a daily peak, dead/restricted, or otherwise outside the pinned L(s,t) estimand. Accuracy scoring requires an independent interval actual.
no forecast-accuracy rows accumulated yet for this state; the nightly writer needs replayed (forecast, actual) pairs before scoring.
Median gCO₂/kWh · day-of-week × hour-of-day (IST)
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Policy & RE Transition
Latest actual
FY23 · modelled
Shortfall
vs FY23 target
A Renewable Purchase Obligation is statutory, not aspirational: a state utility must source a set share of its energy from renewables or pay a penalty. A widening shortfall against the MNRE trajectory is an early signal of either a procurement gap or a banked-REC scramble at year-end — both move power and REC prices.
We do not show a solar capture-rate for Madhya Pradesh because no audited live SLDC interval served-load actual; the available source is modeled, a daily peak, dead/restricted, or otherwise outside the pinned L(s,t) estimand. Accuracy scoring requires an independent interval actual.
Grid cleanliness
Each cell is one hour's grid carbon intensity. Greener = cleaner, browner = more fossil — the green hours are when discretionary load is cheapest on emissions.
SOURCE: CEA carbon factors · UPDATED 04:30 IST
Generation mix
Each band is a fuel's share of generation each hour — watch the solar wedge swell midday and coal hold the baseload, independent of total load.
SOURCE: SLDC fuel mix · UPDATED 04:30 IST
Coverage: frequency since 2025-09-19; congestion since 2026-05-22; demand records since 2018-01-01; news since 2026-05-22.
New all-time peak: 13888 MW (previous 13818 MW)
Grid-India PSP (daily) · POSOCO PSP daily
An hourly residential cost curve isn't published for Madhya Pradesh yet — it appears once the underlying tariff data is available.
Upstream: atlas-discom-disaggregation · /v1/discom-disaggregation/hourly-residential-demand
Residential Tariff
| Schedule | Slab | Energy rate (₹/kWh) |
|---|---|---|
| LV-1.2 | 0–50 kWh | ₹4.71 |
| LV-1-UNMETERED-RURAL | 0–75 kWh | ₹5.74 |
| LV-1.1 | 0–30 kWh | ₹3.72 |
| LV-1.2-PREPAID | 0–50 kWh | ₹4.46 |
| LV-1.2-PREPAID | 50–150 kWh | ₹5.42 |
| LV-1.2 | 50–150 kWh | ₹5.67 |
| LV-1.2-PREPAID | 150–300 kWh | ₹6.80 |
| LV-1.2 | 150–300 kWh | ₹7.05 |
2 additional slabs hidden.
10-Year Tariff History
Published slab rates · no derived averages
DISCOM Health
Madhya Pradesh Poorv Kshetra Vidyut Vitaran Company Limited
ImprovingAT&C losses, FY18 → FY23
21.3%
Latest
Aggregate Technical & Commercial losses per PFC's Annual Integrated Rating of State Power Distribution Utilities. Backfilled FY16 onwards where published. Latest published edition is the 13th Rating (FY22-23 data); forward-year cells marked is_modeled=true.
AT&C (Aggregate Technical & Commercial) loss is the single clearest read on a distribution utility's solvency. Every percentage point is power delivered but never billed or collected; a worsening trend tells you a DISCOM is heading toward the payment delays that ripple back to gencos and IPPs.