Rajasthan — Energy Transition Snapshot
Generated 1 May 2026Carbon intensity (recent ~48h)
Generation mix (latest)
Peak deficit history (%)
Overview
Rajasthan sits within the Northern Regional (NR) grid and is one of India's largest states by area, giving it an outsized role in the national renewable energy build-out—particularly solar. As of 1 May 2026, renewable sources account for 17.5% of the state's generation in the latest hourly slice, against a carbon intensity of 494.6 gCO2/kWh averaged over the recent ~48h window, indicating that thermal generation continues to dominate the fuel mix. The p95 peak deficit recorded in POSOCO PSP data through 23 April 2026 stands at 0.0%, signalling that peak demand has been met without measurable shortage at the 95th percentile. The open-access charge stack at HT voltage totals INR 4.40/kWh as of April 2025. Real-time demand telemetry (SLDC feed) is not available for Rajasthan in the current Atlas integration, limiting intra-day supply-demand anchoring.
Demand & Supply
Real-time demand telemetry for Rajasthan is not available in the current Atlas integration; no MW anchor can be provided for this snapshot. The fuel-mix timeseries (46 demand-history points in the chart series) shows a six-slice fuel mix as of 1 May 2026, with RE contributing 17.5% of generation in the latest hourly slice. The recent ~48h window delta for RE share is −51.6 pp, a sharp intra-window swing that reflects the diurnal collapse of solar output between the evening of 29 April and midnight 1 May 2026—this is a within-window oscillation, not a directional trend. Thermal generation consequently dominates the overnight and early-morning mix. On the supply-adequacy side, the p95 peak deficit stands at 0.0% (POSOCO PSP, daily series through 23 April 2026, 23 data points), indicating the state has not recorded a statistically significant peak shortage at the 95th percentile over the observed period. Multi-year demand CAGR is not available; Atlas does not yet expose a long-term demand aggregator. IEX DAM clearing prices are also absent, as the upstream area-prices feed is currently empty, preventing exchange-price-based supply-cost assessment.
RE & Transition
Rajasthan's RE share in the latest hourly slice (1 May 2026) is 17.5%, with the recent ~48h window delta registering −51.6 pp. This large negative delta is attributable to the solar generation drop across the overnight period ending at midnight 1 May 2026 and should not be interpreted as a directional multi-year trend; no long-term RE trajectory can be established from the current Atlas integration, which exposes only ~48h real-time data. The average carbon intensity over the recent ~48h window is 494.6 gCO2/kWh, consistent with a generation mix where coal-based thermal sets the marginal unit through non-solar hours. For context, India's national grid average carbon intensity typically ranges 700–750 gCO2/kWh; Rajasthan's 494.6 gCO2/kWh reflects the partial contribution of solar during daytime slices within the averaging window. RPO compliance data is not yet integrated (IEA-58), so no assessment of statutory RE obligation fulfilment is possible. Absent multi-year installed-capacity or generation aggregators, characterising the pace of Rajasthan's transition beyond the current hourly snapshot is not supportable from available metrics.
DISCOM Health
The open-access charge stack at HT voltage totals INR 4.40/kWh as of April 2025, comprising CSS, wheeling, transmission, and loss charges. This is the primary cost-of-power signal available; DAM price data is absent (IEX area-prices feed empty), preventing a spread analysis between exchange procurement and OA cost. Peak adequacy, as proxied by the POSOCO PSP p95 peak deficit, is 0.0% through 23 April 2026, suggesting no chronic peak shortage is being recorded—a positive reliability indicator for DISCOM off-take obligations. However, three material data gaps constrain DISCOM health assessment: AT&C losses (UDAY dataset, IEA-57) are not yet integrated, so distribution efficiency cannot be quantified; residential tariff data requires an Atlas API key not yet provisioned (tools-api); and transmission ATC data is absent (IEA-56). These gaps collectively prevent computation of commercial loss, subsidy burden, or tariff adequacy ratios from the current dataset.
Outlook
Over a 1–3 year horizon, two metrics define Rajasthan's baseline: a 0.0% p95 peak deficit and a 494.6 gCO2/kWh carbon intensity averaged over the recent ~48h window. The zero peak deficit is a necessary but not sufficient condition for supply security—without AT&C loss data or multi-year demand CAGR, latent stress from load growth or distribution losses cannot be quantified. The carbon intensity figure, driven by thermal dominance in non-solar hours, sets the decarbonisation baseline; incremental solar capacity that raises the daytime RE share above the current 17.5% snapshot level would compress this intensity in proportion to solar hours captured. The INR 4.40/kWh OA charge stack is the operative cost signal for captive and third-party access consumers; any regulatory revision to CSS or wheeling components will directly shift the economics of behind-the-meter renewable investment. Three gaps—RPO compliance, AT&C losses, and residential tariff—must be resolved before a complete investment or policy risk matrix can be constructed. Priority data integrations: IEA-57 (AT&C), IEA-58 (RPO), and the Atlas tariff API key provisioning.
Data gaps in this brief
- Transmission ATC: Atlas endpoint not yet integrated (see IEA-56).
- DISCOM AT&C losses (UDAY): Atlas endpoint not yet integrated (see IEA-57).
- RPO compliance: state RE policy dataset not yet integrated (see IEA-58).
- Subsidies / incentives: state catalogue not yet integrated (see IEA-59).
- Residential tariff: Atlas tariff endpoint requires X-API-Key not yet provisioned for tools-api.
- Multi-year demand CAGR: Atlas does not yet expose a long-term aggregator (only ~48h realtime).
- IEX DAM price: upstream IEX area-prices feed currently empty.
- Transmission ATC: Atlas endpoint not yet integrated (IEA-56).
- DISCOM AT&C losses (UDAY): Atlas endpoint not yet integrated (IEA-57).
- RPO compliance: state RE policy dataset not yet integrated (IEA-58).
- Subsidies / incentives: state catalogue not yet integrated (IEA-59).