Madhya Pradesh — Energy Transition Snapshot
Generated 1 May 2026Carbon intensity (recent ~48h)
Generation mix (latest)
Peak deficit history (%)
Overview
Madhya Pradesh sits in the Western Regional grid (WR) and is among India's larger electricity-consuming states by installed capacity. Its generation mix is dominated by thermal coal, which drives a carbon intensity of 764.3 gCO2/kWh averaged over the recent ~48h window—well above the WR average for greener-mix states. RE contributed just 10.7% of generation at the latest hourly slice (as of 2026-05-01). The state's open-access cost stack at HT voltage stands at INR 3.33/kWh (as of 2025-04-01), a figure that shapes the economics of industrial self-supply and third-party power procurement. Real-time demand telemetry and POSOCO peak-deficit rows are not available for MP in the current Atlas integration, limiting granular reliability assessment. Structural data gaps—AT&C losses, RPO compliance, residential tariff, and long-term demand growth—constrain a full DISCOM health picture, and those limitations are carried through every section of this brief.
Demand & Supply
Real-time demand telemetry (latest_demand_mw) is not available for Madhya Pradesh in the current Atlas feed; quantitative anchoring on instantaneous load is therefore not possible. The fuel-mix series (4 slices available) confirms a coal-heavy dispatch stack, with RE accounting for 10.7% of generation at the latest slice. Over the recent ~48h window (2026-04-29T03:00 to 2026-05-01T00:00 UTC), RE share contracted by 22.5 percentage points—a sharp recent-window delta that reflects either solar output cycling through nighttime hours, wind intermittency, or scheduled thermal ramping; no multi-day directional trend can be inferred from a single 48h delta. Peak-deficit data (POSOCO PSP) returns zero rows for MP, so p95 peak shortage cannot be quantified; this is an explicit Atlas gap and not an inference that the state runs surplus. The combination of a high-carbon dispatch profile, negligible RE share at the measurement point, and absent real-time demand data means supply-side visibility is currently limited to fuel-mix composition. Investors and planners should treat the 10.7% RE share as a point-in-time snapshot, not a rolling average.
RE & Transition
At the latest hourly slice, RE supplies 10.7% of MP's generation—a low share relative to WR peers with significant solar and wind commissioning. The recent ~48h window delta registers −22.5 pp, indicating RE share was materially higher (~33 pp) at the window's start before falling to the 10.7% endpoint; this swing is consistent with diurnal solar cycling and should not be read as a structural deterioration. It is not a multi-year trend—multi-year demand CAGR and long-run RE penetration trajectory data are not yet integrated in Atlas. Carbon intensity averaged 764.3 gCO2/kWh over the recent ~48h window, placing MP's grid among the more carbon-intensive profiles in WR—an outcome of thermal baseload dominance. RPO compliance data is not yet integrated (IEA-58), so whether MP is meeting its renewable purchase obligations cannot be assessed from available metrics. The absence of both RPO compliance and a long-term RE CAGR aggregator means the transition posture can only be described as: high-carbon, low-RE-share at the current measurement point, with directionality over multi-year horizons unquantifiable from this dataset.
DISCOM Health
The open-access charge stack for HT consumers in MP totals INR 3.33/kWh (as of 2025-04-01), covering CSS, wheeling, transmission, and loss charges. This is the primary available proxy for cost-of-power signals and OA economics in the state; it implies that large industrial consumers face a non-trivial hurdle rate when evaluating third-party or captive RE procurement against DISCOM supply. AT&C losses—the core DISCOM financial health indicator—are not yet integrated (Atlas IEA-57); no loss percentage can be cited. Residential tariff data requires an API key not yet provisioned for the tools layer, so cross-subsidy burden and household cost exposure cannot be quantified. Peak deficit p95 (POSOCO PSP) returns no rows for MP, leaving reliability-of-supply assessment open. IEX DAM price data is also absent (feed empty), removing the market-price benchmark against which DISCOM procurement costs are typically evaluated. In aggregate, DISCOM health assessment for MP is materially constrained by data gaps; the INR 3.33/kWh OA stack is the sole financially quantifiable data point available.
Outlook
Over a 1–3 year horizon, MP's energy posture is shaped by three observable metrics and several structural unknowns. The 10.7% RE share and 764.3 gCO2/kWh carbon intensity establish a low-RE, high-carbon baseline from which any transition trajectory must depart. The −22.5 pp recent-window delta reflects intraday variability, not a policy-driven shift, and should not be extrapolated. The INR 3.33/kWh HT open-access stack will be the operative signal for industrial load behaviour: if thermal procurement costs rise or carbon-pricing pressure increases, this figure becomes a binding constraint on OA-RE competitiveness. Key unknowns that will determine the 1–3 year picture—AT&C loss trajectory, RPO compliance rate, residential tariff structure, and demand growth CAGR—are all currently data-not-yet-integrated. Until those gaps are closed, investment sizing, DISCOM reform benchmarking, and household-impact modelling remain incomplete. The immediate analytical priority is integrating IEA-56 through IEA-59 and the tariff API key to move from a partial to a full-spectrum state assessment.
Data gaps in this brief
- Transmission ATC: Atlas endpoint not yet integrated (see IEA-56).
- DISCOM AT&C losses (UDAY): Atlas endpoint not yet integrated (see IEA-57).
- RPO compliance: state RE policy dataset not yet integrated (see IEA-58).
- Subsidies / incentives: state catalogue not yet integrated (see IEA-59).
- Residential tariff: Atlas tariff endpoint requires X-API-Key not yet provisioned for tools-api.
- Multi-year demand CAGR: Atlas does not yet expose a long-term aggregator (only ~48h realtime).
- IEX DAM price: upstream IEX area-prices feed currently empty.
- Transmission ATC: Atlas endpoint not yet integrated (IEA-56).
- DISCOM AT&C losses (UDAY): Atlas endpoint not yet integrated (IEA-57).
- RPO compliance: state RE policy dataset not yet integrated (IEA-58).
- Subsidies / incentives: state catalogue not yet integrated (IEA-59).
- Peak deficit p95: POSOCO PSP returns no rows for Madhya Pradesh.
- Real-time demand (MW): SLDC live telemetry feed not available for Madhya Pradesh.