Gujarat — Energy Transition Snapshot
Generated 1 May 2026Carbon intensity (recent ~48h)
Generation mix (latest)
Peak deficit history (%)
Overview
Gujarat sits in the Western Regional grid (WR), one of India's most industrially dense power zones. At 19,695 MW of instantaneous demand (as of 2026-04-30 19:00 IST), the state ranks among the top three load centres in WR. Its generation mix is fossil-dominated at the latest snapshot, with renewable energy contributing 21.3% of output as of 2026-05-01. The average carbon intensity over the recent ~48h window stands at 549.2 gCO2/kWh, consistent with a coal-heavy baseload profile. On the supply-adequacy front, Gujarat records a peak-deficit P95 of 0.0% (POSOCO PSP, as of 2026-04-23), indicating no measurable peak shortage at the 95th-percentile tail across the observed period. The HT open-access charge stack totals INR 2.68/kWh (as of 2025-04-01). Multi-year demand trajectory, AT&C losses, RPO compliance, and residential tariff data are not yet integrated in this release.
Demand & Supply
Instantaneous demand was 19,695 MW as of 2026-04-30 19:00 IST, providing a firm anchor for the current supply balance. Renewable energy accounted for 21.3% of generation at the 2026-05-01 snapshot. Over the preceding ~48h window (2026-04-29 03:00 UTC to 2026-05-01 00:00 UTC), RE share contracted by 26.1 percentage points—a sharp recent-window delta that reflects either diurnal solar fall-off, ramp-down of wind, or a combination; it should not be read as a structural trend given the 48h observation window. The residual ~78.7% of generation is therefore being met by thermal and other non-RE sources, consistent with the 549.2 gCO2/kWh average carbon intensity over the same window. On adequacy, the peak-deficit P95 is 0.0% (POSOCO PSP data through 2026-04-23), meaning the state has not recorded a statistically significant peak shortage at the 95th-percentile level in the measured window. Multi-year demand CAGR is not yet integrated; no compound growth rate can be cited. IEX DAM prices are also unavailable due to an empty upstream feed, precluding any exchange-price-to-demand correlation.
RE & Transition
RE share stood at 21.3% of generation at the latest hourly slice (2026-05-01). The recent ~48h window delta is −26.1 pp, a large intraday/overnight swing that underscores Gujarat's high solar dependence within its RE portfolio—generation drops sharply when solar generation ramps down. This is a short-window observation, not a multi-year directional indicator; a long-term RE penetration trend cannot be computed because the Atlas platform does not yet expose a multi-year demand or generation aggregator (data gap: IEA multi-year CAGR endpoint). Average carbon intensity over the recent ~48h window is 549.2 gCO2/kWh, which places the state's current dispatch firmly in the high-carbon range and reflects the thermal backstop carrying the overnight load. RPO compliance data is not yet integrated (IEA-58), so no statement can be made on whether Gujarat is meeting its statutory renewable purchase obligations. The 549.2 gCO2/kWh figure, combined with the 21.3% RE share, implies that decarbonisation progress remains constrained by the coal baseload, though no trajectory can be quantified without multi-year generation history.
DISCOM Health
Two supply-side proxies are available for assessing DISCOM operational posture. First, peak-deficit P95 is 0.0% (POSOCO PSP, through 2026-04-23), indicating Gujarat's DISCOM(s) are currently meeting peak demand without recorded shortfall at the 95th-percentile tail—a positive adequacy signal. Second, the total HT open-access charge stack is INR 2.68/kWh (as of 2025-04-01), comprising CSS, wheeling, transmission, and loss charges at HT voltage. This figure serves as a proxy for the cost-of-supply signal facing open-access consumers but does not directly reflect DISCOM financial health. AT&C loss data (UDAY dataset, IEA-57) is not yet integrated; no efficiency or collection loss figure can be cited. Residential tariff data is also unavailable (Atlas tariff endpoint requires an unprovisioned API key). IEX DAM prices are empty, preventing any cross-check of DISCOM procurement cost against exchange prices. Subsidies and incentive catalogues are not integrated (IEA-59). In aggregate, the DISCOM picture is incomplete; adequacy is sound but cost-efficiency metrics remain gapped.
Outlook
Over a 1–3 year horizon, Gujarat enters the period with two structural strengths: zero peak-deficit at the P95 level and an active open-access market (HT OA stack at INR 2.68/kWh). The 21.3% RE share and the −26.1 pp recent-window delta together highlight that solar-driven variability is already material; grid flexibility and storage investment will be necessary to arrest overnight carbon intensity, currently at 549.2 gCO2/kWh, without compromising the 0.0% peak-deficit record. The INR 2.68/kWh OA charge stack sets the competitive cost floor for captive and third-party consumers; as exchange prices (currently ungapped from this feed) and retail tariffs evolve, this stack will be a key determinant of OA uptake. Four data gaps constrain forward planning: AT&C losses (IEA-57), RPO compliance (IEA-58), multi-year demand CAGR, and residential tariff levels. Closing these gaps is a prerequisite for any rigorous capacity-adequacy or cost-recovery modelling. Policy priority should be integrating these datasets to enable deficit forecasting and DISCOM financial stress-testing alongside the currently available real-time metrics.
Data gaps in this brief
- Transmission ATC: Atlas endpoint not yet integrated (see IEA-56).
- DISCOM AT&C losses (UDAY): Atlas endpoint not yet integrated (see IEA-57).
- RPO compliance: state RE policy dataset not yet integrated (see IEA-58).
- Subsidies / incentives: state catalogue not yet integrated (see IEA-59).
- Residential tariff: Atlas tariff endpoint requires X-API-Key not yet provisioned for tools-api.
- Multi-year demand CAGR: Atlas does not yet expose a long-term aggregator (only ~48h realtime).
- IEX DAM price: upstream IEX area-prices feed currently empty.
- Transmission ATC: Atlas endpoint not yet integrated (IEA-56).
- DISCOM AT&C losses (UDAY): Atlas endpoint not yet integrated (IEA-57).
- RPO compliance: state RE policy dataset not yet integrated (IEA-58).
- Subsidies / incentives: state catalogue not yet integrated (IEA-59).