Assam — Energy Transition Snapshot
Generated 1 May 2026Carbon intensity (recent ~48h)
Generation mix (latest)
Peak deficit history (%)
Overview
Assam sits within the NER (North-East Region) grid, a sub-grid characterised by hydro-dominant supply, constrained inter-regional transmission corridors, and demand that skews residential and agricultural. At the latest hourly slice (2026-05-01), renewable energy accounts for 19.6% of Assam's generation mix — a materially lower share than headline NER hydro potential would suggest, partly reflecting thermal and gas capacity that backstops the region's variable hydro output. Carbon intensity averaged 575.0 gCO2/kWh over the recent ~48h window, which is on the higher end for a state with access to hydro, indicating significant thermal dispatch during this period. The p95 peak deficit stands at 0.0% as of 2026-04-23, signalling that supply has been meeting peak demand reliably across the observed distribution of days. Real-time demand telemetry and open-access charge data are not available for Assam in the current Atlas integration, limiting the granularity of the demand-side and OA-economics picture.
Demand & Supply
Assam's generation mix, as captured across 4 fuel-mix slices in the recent window, reflects a thermal-leaning dispatch profile. RE contributed 19.6% of generation at the latest hourly observation (2026-05-01). Over the preceding ~48h window (2026-04-29T03:00 to 2026-05-01T00:00), RE share fell by 17.54 percentage points — a sharp recent-window delta that points to a swing from renewable (likely hydro) toward thermal or gas dispatch within this short period. This is a ~48h observation, not a structural trend, and should be read as dispatch-cycle variability rather than a directional shift in installed capacity or policy. Peak reliability, measured by the p95 of daily peak shortage as a percentage of peak demand (POSOCO PSP series, 23 data points), stands at 0.0% as of 2026-04-23. This means that at the 95th-percentile day, Assam recorded no peak deficit — a supply-adequacy signal that holds even under stress-day conditions in the recent observed window. Real-time demand telemetry (latest_demand_mw) is not available for Assam; the SLDC feed is not yet integrated into Atlas. This prevents anchoring on an absolute MW demand figure. Multi-year demand CAGR is also not available — the Atlas platform does not yet expose a long-term aggregator beyond the ~48h realtime window.
RE & Transition
At 19.6% RE share (2026-05-01 hourly slice), Assam is drawing on a mix that remains predominantly non-renewable in dispatched terms. The recent ~48h window delta of -17.54 pp indicates that hydro or other RE sources stepped down sharply in this short period, with thermal filling the gap — pushing the observed carbon intensity to 575.0 gCO2/kWh (averaged over ~48h). A 575 gCO2/kWh average is characteristic of a coal-and-gas-heavy dispatch hour and underscores that the current fuel mix, whatever its installed RE capacity, is running thermal-heavy in this window. The structural transition picture is incomplete due to two critical data gaps. First, RPO compliance data is not yet integrated (IEA-58), so it is not possible to assess whether Assam is meeting its renewable purchase obligations — a key regulatory signal for transition pace. Second, multi-year demand CAGR is unavailable, so the denominator growth rate against which RE capacity additions must be sized cannot be established from available data. No IEX DAM price is available (feed currently empty), removing a market-price signal that would otherwise indicate whether RE economics are competitive with marginal thermal in the NER zone. The directional posture, based solely on available metrics, is one of thermal dependence in current dispatch, with RE share well below what NER hydro geography would support at full utilisation.
DISCOM Health
The available metrics provide a partial picture of DISCOM health. On the supply-reliability dimension, the p95 peak deficit of 0.0% (POSOCO PSP, as of 2026-04-23, 23-day series) indicates that Assam's distribution system is not experiencing peak shortfalls at the tail of the observed distribution — a constructive reliability signal. However, three metrics central to DISCOM financial health are not available in the current Atlas integration. AT&C losses (UDAY dataset) are not yet integrated (IEA-57); without this figure, it is not possible to assess the gap between units injected and revenue collected, which is the primary driver of DISCOM cash-flow stress in NER states. The residential tariff endpoint requires an API key not yet provisioned, so the tariff-cost gap cannot be quantified. Open-access charge stack (CSS + wheeling + transmission + losses at HT voltage) is also unavailable for Assam, removing the proxy signal for cost-of-power and OA economics that would otherwise supplement the tariff picture. In aggregate: reliability metrics are adequate based on available data, but the financial health of Assam's DISCOM cannot be assessed from current Atlas outputs.
Outlook
Over a 1–3 year horizon, Assam's energy posture presents two distinct trajectories depending on dispatch evolution. The 0.0% p95 peak deficit suggests the system is not in immediate supply-crisis territory, providing a relatively stable base for incremental investment and policy action. The 19.6% RE share — combined with a -17.54 pp recent-window delta — indicates that RE dispatch is highly variable and thermal remains the reliability backstop. Bringing carbon intensity below 575.0 gCO2/kWh on a sustained basis will require either firming of hydro dispatch or addition of firm RE (storage-backed solar or run-of-river augmentation), not merely installed capacity growth. Three structural uncertainties cannot be resolved with current data: RPO compliance trajectory (IEA-58 not integrated), AT&C loss level (IEA-57 not integrated), and demand growth rate (no long-term CAGR aggregator). Any 3-year demand-supply balance or DISCOM viability projection that omits these inputs should be treated as indicative only. For policy advisors and investors, the immediate priority is closing the Atlas data gaps on AT&C losses and RPO compliance — without these, neither regulatory compliance posture nor DISCOM bankability can be assessed for Assam within the NER context.
Data gaps in this brief
- Transmission ATC: Atlas endpoint not yet integrated (see IEA-56).
- DISCOM AT&C losses (UDAY): Atlas endpoint not yet integrated (see IEA-57).
- RPO compliance: state RE policy dataset not yet integrated (see IEA-58).
- Subsidies / incentives: state catalogue not yet integrated (see IEA-59).
- Residential tariff: Atlas tariff endpoint requires X-API-Key not yet provisioned for tools-api.
- Multi-year demand CAGR: Atlas does not yet expose a long-term aggregator (only ~48h realtime).
- IEX DAM price: upstream IEX area-prices feed currently empty.
- Transmission ATC: Atlas endpoint not yet integrated (IEA-56).
- DISCOM AT&C losses (UDAY): Atlas endpoint not yet integrated (IEA-57).
- RPO compliance: state RE policy dataset not yet integrated (IEA-58).
- Subsidies / incentives: state catalogue not yet integrated (IEA-59).
- Multi-year demand CAGR: Atlas does not expose a long-term aggregator; only ~48h realtime available.