All-India · May 2026 · net load · as of September 2026
midday turn-down
The three signals + the storage gap
Live value, paired with the EAC-PM paper’s reference. Badges show coverage.
Midday → evening price
National7.4×
₹1.28 midday → ₹9.46 evening · IEX DAM (2026-08)
EAC-PM (May 2026): 8.8× — ₹1.11 → ₹9.71
Storage gap (evening ramp)
National~155 GWh
short of halving the evening ramp — the fleet covers only ~13% (23.8 GWh discharged)
EAC-PM (May 2026 evening): 130 GWh needed vs 23.8 GWh discharged
Solar curtailment
Partial≥14.3 GWh/day
Rajasthan only, estimated — national metered pending the REMC feed
EAC-PM (May 2026, all-India): ~24 GWh/day
Stress after dark
Proxy16 / 59 days
peak demand falls outside the solar window (8 AM–4 PM) — a timing proxy for the paper's metered shortage
EAC-PM (Apr–May 2026): 36/61 non-solar-hour shortage days vs 6/61 solar-hour
Storage gap by state
The paper is all-India; the flexibility problem is not. This is the storage-mandate priority list — states ranked by the daily net-load swing the dispatchable fleet must follow, on the paper’s Demand−Solar lens. States whose midday net load already crosses below zero are flagged.
| # | State | Evening ramp | Turn-down | Net-load floor | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rajasthan· 2025 | 19.6 GW | 132% | -32% | CamelNegative |
| 2 | Gujarat· 2025 | 11.1 GW | 53% | 47% | Camel |
| 3 | Karnataka· 2025 | 5.0 GW | 46% | 54% | Camel |
| 4 | Tamil Nadu· 2025 | 5.0 GW | 31% | 69% | Camel |
| 5 | Maharashtra· 2025 | 3.5 GW | 17% | 83% | Camel |
| 6 | Andhra Pradesh· 2025 | 2.6 GW | 29% | 71% | Camel |
| 7 | Madhya Pradesh· 2025 | 2.5 GW | 22% | 79% | Camel |
| 8 | Telangana· 2025 | 2.1 GW | 26% | 74% | Camel |
| 9 | Uttar Pradesh· 2025 | 1.9 GW | 15% | 85% | |
| 10 | Haryana· 2025 | 0.7 GW | 14% | 86% | |
| 11 | Punjab· 2025 | 0.7 GW | 14% | 86% | |
| 12 | Bihar· 2025 | 0.6 GW | 15% | 85% | |
| 13 | Chhattisgarh· 2025 | 0.5 GW | 16% | 84% | Camel |
| 14 | Delhi· 2025 | 0.5 GW | 14% | 86% | |
| 15 | Odisha· 2025 | 0.5 GW | 15% | 85% | |
| 16 | Kerala· 2025 | 0.3 GW | 14% | 87% | |
| 17 | Uttarakhand· 2025 | 0.2 GW | 14% | 86% | |
| 18 | Assam· 2025 | 0.1 GW | 16% | 84% | |
| 19 | Goa· 2025 | 0.1 GW | 14% | 86% | |
| 20 | Puducherry· 2025 | 0.0 GW | 15% | 85% | |
| 21 | Chandigarh· 2025 | 0.0 GW | 16% | 84% | Camel |
| 22 | Manipur· 2025 | 0.0 GW | 16% | 84% | |
| 23 | Mizoram· 2025 | 0.0 GW | 20% | 80% | Camel |
| 24 | Lakshadweep· 2025 | 0.0 GW | 35% | 65% | Camel |
Net-load floor is the daily minimum as a share of the evening peak; below zero means midday solar has pushed net load negative. Highlighted states have already crossed — India's first-negative-net-load moment, one state at a time. Modelled per-state net load (Demand−Solar), India Energy Atlas.
Frequently asked
- What is the duck curve?
- The duck curve is the shape of net electricity demand — total demand minus solar and wind — across a day. As solar rises around midday, net load dips into a belly; as solar fades in the evening, net load ramps up steeply, tracing a duck-like silhouette.
- How deep is India's midday net-load turn-down?
- In May 2026, all-India net load falls about 34% from its evening/night peak of roughly 216 GW to a daytime belly of about 143 GW, with around 83 GW of solar and wind at the belly (India Energy Atlas, modelled from POSOCO demand and vintage-scaled renewables, as of September 2026).
- What is India's winter camel curve?
- In winter India's net load traces a double-humped 'Bactrian camel' rather than a duck: a pre-dawn hump as households wake to the cold, a solar-fed midday trough, and an evening hump after dark. By January 2026 the midday trough has fallen below the pre-dawn floor — solar now pushes the belly beneath the night-time base. The EAC-PM working paper 'The Duck and The Camel' (EAC-PM/WP/53/2026) traces the same shapes; the live curves here update daily and add per-state detail. Use the season switcher to compare the summer duck, the winter camel and the monsoon.
- What happens to the duck curve in the monsoon?
- In the monsoon the duck flattens. Heavy cloud cuts solar output, so the midday belly is shallower and net load looks more like a conventional demand profile than the deep summer duck or the double-humped winter camel. India Energy Atlas materialises July net load alongside the May duck and the January camel, so you can switch seasons on the live page and compare — the same three-season arc the EAC-PM working paper 'The Duck and The Camel' (EAC-PM/WP/53/2026) traces.
- What is net demand?
- Net demand = total electricity demand − solar − wind. It is the load the dispatchable fleet (coal, gas, hydro, nuclear, storage) must actually serve, and the right lens for the duck curve because solar and wind are not dispatchable.
- Is India's net load ever negative?
- Nationally not yet — net load stays around 65% of peak at its lowest. But high-solar states are approaching zero: Rajasthan is the leading first-negative-net-load candidate in India Energy Atlas's modelled per-state series — India's 'California moment' in the making.
- Where can I get the data?
- The hourly net-demand profile and records are open (CC-BY) via the India Energy Atlas API at /api/intelligence/net-demand and on the live page at energymap.in/duck-curve.